Industry demand for Christmas and Black Friday below expectations

Above the historical average inventory at retail and consumption retracted the demand have end of year in the industry. Black Friday and Christmas, in 2018, are not changing significantly the intensity of production. "Factors such as domestic demand and the level of unemployment, combined with the level of stocks in major segments above the usual standard, generate a sense of uncertainty that affects investments of entrepreneurs and the consumption of the population," says the Manager of the monthly industry research by the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE), Andrew M. Throughout the year, the index pointed to a behavior of lesser intensity in the domestic industry and the last two surveys (July and August) recorded a fall. "There were two negative results in sequence from 2015" says Macedo. The President of the National Association of Manufacturers of electrical and electronic products (Down), José Jorge de Asis, States that retail orders are not superior compared to other months of the year. "They are still normal. There was no increase in production or reduction of idleness, as in other years. " The account that the initial projection of growth of the sector in 2018, from 10% to 15%, was reduced throughout the year. "Reset to around 5% to 10%, in light of the intense crises that occurred as the truck drivers ' strike." He still believes that the last quarter can be more positive. "Black Friday and Christmas are two very important moments for the sector. There is still hope of these dates meet the initial projection. But at the moment, the Outlook is conservative. " The President of Brazilian footwear industries Association (Abicalçados), Hector Klein, also sees underwhelming drive. "We don't get a strong reaction, which is a warm season due to the launch of collections and parties." He believes that the impoundment of retailing may be causing rise in stocks. "Certainly this can cause some reflection on the orders. The priority becomes empty the House. " Klein does not risk projections for the end of the year. "We have no way to make a measurement, by the complete frame instability. Makes it difficult to find parameters of evaluation. " The President of the Brazilian Association of Textile and Clothing Industry (Abit), Fernando Pimentel, sorts that retailers did not have a good year. "The big networks have positioned themselves better, the multi-brand channel suffered more. Looking at that horizon, demand is strongest in the large retailers. " He points out that the industry's growth expectation did not materialize. "The retail as a whole grew, but the consumer did not make the clothing as in 2017." Focus on analysis of the electoral Director of Iemi market intelligence, Marcelo Prado, the election took the focus of population consumption. "The garment sector releases were overshadowed by election campaigns. There is a fear about the future, jobs and credit, even by the virulence of the speeches, that ends up holding the demand. " He believes that the election period, there is a tendency of growth. "Families have tightened the belt, there is a pent-up demand. I think there's going to be a good buying opportunity, as the 13th salary injecting money into the economy. " PRADO does not see stock levels above normal clothing industry. "Retailers have been working with guarded stocks, bought and sold poorly." He points out that the consumption of children's day and father's day was positive. "Both dates had growth on 2017. The problem is that in other periods there was fall on this consumer insecurity. " Klein believes that the 13th salary will bring a major impact. "Will be injected over R $200 billion in savings. Good part will be used to pay debts, but hopefully a little is directed to consumption. "