Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Only the production of medicine, pulp and smoke grows in 1st Qtr, points IBGE

São Paulo-industrial production fell 11.7 percent in the first quarter over a year earlier, reported yesterday the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE). The exception, in the period, was the manufacturing activity of smoke, pulp and paper and medicines.
According to the data of the Monthly Industrial Survey (IMPS) of IBGE, the breakthrough in tobacco products category (+31.3%), which includes cigarettes and tobacco processed, reflects the basis of comparison weaker and the increase in exports in the period from January to March.
"Already the category of pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceutical products marked the second consecutive high compared to the previous year, but has predominantly negative behavior in recent months. Although YTD activity report also due to the lower base of comparison, the reading remains negative, "said the Manager of the IBGE industry coordination, Andrew M.
The survey showed high of 0.9% in the production of pharmaceuticals in the first three months ahead to 2015. Macedo explained that the activity, as well as the entire industry of consumer goods, is still down by the negative situation of domestic economy-decrease in the income of families, high inflation and defaults.
The activity in pulp, paper and paper products had growth of 1.7% in the quarter, even with more difficult scenario for this market. The main companies in the industry have reported difficulties in pulp exports to the Asian market, one of the main destinations of shipments, in the first months of the year. However, in April the companies said they had resumed the sales pace and expect better numbers in the following months.
The biggest falls in the quarter, according to the IBGE, were recorded in computer equipment, electronic and optical products ( -34.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and truck bodies ( -27.8%) and machinery and equipment ( -23.7%), maintaining the trend of recent quarters.
"The numbers of the industry continued bad in the following months, based on what we see now. Employment and confidence indicators, which are more immediate, not show a change in the scenario that can have an impact on demand, "said the Chief Economist of brokerage New Future, Pedro Paulo Silveira.
In comparison with the same month last year, the industrial production showed indentation of 11.4% in March.
Perspective
All the major economic categories-capital goods ( -28.9%), intermediate goods ( -10.3%) and consumer goods ( -9.8%)-presented in the quarter, falloff emphasized the IBGE.
"To clashes involving 2015, all the activity profile remains with recoil in early 2016, keeping the characteristic of fall spread. In magnitude, the highlight negative broad categories remains durable and capital goods, "recalled Andrew M.
For IBGE Economist, takes improvement seen on passage of February to March across all major categories is punctual and doesn''t mean an effective improvement in the activity. In comparison to the immediately preceding month, production of capital goods grew 2.2% above the overall average of the industry (+1.4%).
"The positive performance of March was concentrated in the manufacturing industry, with a high of 1.7% compared with February. The extractive industry, in turn, returned to retreat in March ( -0.9%) and thus accumulates relevant 14% contraction in the last five months, influenced especially by the breaking of the dam of mining tailings in Mariana (MG). The positive performance spread between the sectors of the industry in March, however, was unrepresentative front fall of accumulated production in all segments of the industry, "explained the Chief Economist team of banco Safra, Carlos Kawall, in a report.
On the evaluation of the new Brokerage, Future, improvement in indicators on monthly basis of PIM is a point outside of the curve of the trend observed in the industrial sector. "I believe that at some point this year we can hit the least [industry activity], but it is difficult to establish the trigger for that to happen and in what month this point will be reached," he said.
The Economist designs 0.20% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2016, reflecting the industry''s behavior. In the last quarter of the year, GDP may have high of 0.30%, with industry reaching the minimum between this period. But Sen said don''t bet that the interruption of the falls take a consistent restart productive activity in the country.
"The industry builds up 9.7% contraction in 12 months up to March this year. The result is the worst since October 2009. The panorama follows very bad and everything indicates that the GDP in the period will register similar declines observed in the last quarter of 2015 ", the Bank''s economists factor, José Francisco de Lima Gonçalves and Julia Aguilar, in report on the PIM.
DCI - 04/05/2016
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