Rabobank points as cocoa product more optimistic for 2017; coffee is the most pessimistic

Speculators, who have been major players in markets such as soybeans and sugar this year, must remain "active" in 2017, as stated by the Rabobank. The Bank still bet on cocoa as the product more optimistic for next year and in the coffee as the most pessimistic.
The Rabobank reminds us that the search for yield by investors, at a time of low borrowing costs, should continue. "It is expected that interest rates increase only slowly, keeping investors looking for higher returns," said the Bank, adding that indexed funds can also go back to the market in the second half of 2017.
"The interest in commodity index funds, which offer protection against possible inflation, may be revived if the fear of inflation reappear," points.
Fall of coffee
In spite of a forecast of a new world production deficit in 2017/18, of more than 2 million bags, the Bank signaled the potential for currency weakness in major producer countries, which should support the local coffee prices and encourage the sale.
In much of Latin America, the prospects for production are good. The Peru, for example, will have a strong harvest in 2017/18.
The Rabobank predicts the future of Arabic for the end of next year at about 149 cents per pound weight, a level well below the 170.70 cents that the December contract/17 points today. The robust should fall also to 2,040 dollars a tonne rather than climb to 2,113 dollars a tonne as the market expects at this point.
China and the corn
Corn and wheat also were named as lower bets, with the future of corn and should arrive on average the US stood at 3.55 the bushel in the last three months of next year, compared with $ $3,84 being laid down at this time.
World corn inventories should fall for the first time in this decade in 2017/18, but the Rabobank has identified that China must release the supplies of its State-owned stocks, which could turn the country into a net exporter of grain.
For wheat, the Chicago futures should climb to $4.60 the bushel until next year, but not enough to allow a fall in world stocks.
Very strong demand
However, the Rabobank is more optimistic in their Outlook for soybean futures in Chicago, watching the numbers returning to $ $10,70 in spring (autumn in the southern hemisphere), ahead of the $ $10,41 that comes negotiating the may contracts.
Prices must be supported by 2% growth in world demand of oilseeds, with significant imports from China, which should grow 3.5% in 2017/18.
Way sweet cocoa
The Bank classified the cocoa as the most active bet for next year, predicting that the future of New York should close the year at $2,620 per tonne, up from $2,448 per tonne that are being quoted.
Underlining the prospect of a second world surplus production in 2017/18, the Rabobank highlighted the potential for an increased demand for the product, as chocolate sales stabilize in Europe and the United States.
In addition, the Rabobank also believes that sales of chocolate should be quite attractive to the Asian market.