Monday, November 23, 2015

Country will have to import more wheat this year

Less than half of the Brazilian wheat production expected this year may be used for human consumption. The occurrence of frosts and rains during the harvest, especially in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, knocked down the productivity and the quality of the cereal. With that, the Brazil-already one of the largest importers of wheat in the world-will have again to expand the purchases from abroad. In the market, it is estimated that 6.6 million tons will have to be imported in the year 2015/16 commercial, which began in August. This is the largest volume from 2013.
The initial expectation was that the harvest would reach 7.3 million tons, but due to the bad weather, production must be of 5.7 million, 22% smaller, second Crop estimate & market. Of this volume, as the consulting, only 3.5 million tons must be of quality wheat for use in milling industry-selling flour for making bread, pasta and biscuits. According to the Crops, the Brazilian mills will import 6.6 million tonnes-between grain and flour-to domestic demand of about 11 million tons. Adding to the 3.5 million and 6.6 million production import, still plenty of 900 1000 tons to meet the Brazilian consumption. According to the analyst of the Crops Market, Élcio Benedict &, this difference will be supplied by stockpiles of passage.
If confirmed, the volume to be imported in the year 2015/16 commercial will be 24% higher than that recorded in the last cycle (5.3 million tons) and the highest from 2013, when the country brought from abroad 6.642 million tons, according to the national supply company (Conab). For 2015, the State still maintains the wheat import forecast at 5.3 million tons.
For the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo), which have not yet completed their estimate for the cycle, the import volume will exceed 6 million tons, according to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the entity, Marcelo Vosnika.
As historically occurs, most will come from Mercosur, but you will need to bring the cereal also block out, says Benedict, the Vintages & market. The consultancy estimates that Mercosur will have available only 4.2 million tons for export to all destinations-3.4 million tons from Argentina and 800 1000 tons of Paraguay. Another supplier of wheat to Brazil, Uruguay, also had his vintage frustrated by occurrence of rains at harvest and no more than 400 1000 tons, of questionable quality, to sell abroad, in Bento.
The volume to be exported by Argentina, main supplier of cereal to Brazil, can still grow 1 million tonnes to 4.4 million tons, depending on the policy of granting of export authorisation adopted by the new President of the neighboring country.
The consultancy estimates that at least 1.5 million tons will have to come from outside the Mercosur, in particular the United States and Canada. "It will be a higher cost to the mills of the country", says Benedict. Considering the dollar R$ 3.75, ton of Argentine wheat arrives at the port in Brazil to 980 R$. This value for the Paraguayan cereal is R$ 720, while the American wheat (with 10% of the Common external tariff-TEC) from 1.120 R$ 1000, depending on the Vintages.
Valor Economico
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