Production of cars should lose pace until the end of the year

Drew attention last week to revise the goals by the automobile industry to 2013, with the expectation of sales but indicating a production well above the volume initially designed by the manufacturers.
If, on the other hand, the new numbers prove the change of a reading extremely positive about the market's ability to overcome the historic volumes of 2012, on the other hand, show that the industry overestimated the impact of the recession and a shift that still showed little competitive at the beginning of the year.
Against initial expectations, the unexpected resumption of exports, combined with the replacement of imported cars by nationals, was one of the engines for high of almost 14% on vehicle factories activity accumulated from January to August. This made the Anfavea, an organization that represents automakers, announce on Thursday a jump in estimating growth of production in 2013: from 4.5% to 11.9%.
On the other hand, the sales growth forecast, which previously ranged from 3.5% to 4.5%, fell to the track of 1% to 2%, more aligned to the expectations of the Fenabrave, the resales entity. Still, the numbers are more optimistic compared to forecasts made by independent analysts who reach the point drop in licenses. But unlike any positive reading that the new production target can suggest or negative, in the case of sales, Anfavea, in fact, indicated in its calculations a slowdown in factory activity for the remainder of the year.
The production of automakers, which came to touch 350 thousand in April and may, in addition to over 340 thousand units last month, enter now in a phase of more moderate results, with a monthly pace around 320 thousand vehicles, as bills made on the basis of the forecasts issued by the manufacturers.
The production envisaged for the last four months of 2013-1.28 million vehicles--still beats in 8.4% total in the same period last year, a good number, but that does not repeat the pace of 13.7% shown until August.
Some analysts, however, say even sharper deceleration, in view of the high level of stocks on the network. Because not all production of August-the highest for the month in history-has been absorbed by the market, vehicles parked in factory yards and in dealers grew last month. At the end of August, were 400 thousand vehicles, equivalent to 36 days of sale, when the ideal, according to analysts, dealers and executives say the automakers themselves, would be a level closest to 30 days.
Report released by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch after the disclosure of the auto industry stocks in August estimates that the numbers have increased the possibility of more acute downturn of production rates during this semester.
"A more abrupt reduction of volumes produced tends to be worse for businesses than a gradual reduction, since in this scenario they don't have enough time to adjust its cost structure, harming margins", says the text of the BofA Merrill Lynch signed by Murilo analysts Freiberger, Sara Dauphin and Roberto Otero.
The consultancy is also more conservative Associates GO of the Anfavea. Predicts a growth of 7% of production, as a result of a high estimated at almost 2% in sales of vehicles manufactured in Brazil and 26% advance designed for exports. To Deutsche Bank, a better-than-expected performance this year probably will mean a weaker production between 2014 and 2015.
Already when it evaluates the sales trend, the market, going forward, will have to go back to levels in excess of 340 thousand vehicles per month-which, this year, it just happened in July-to achieve by the end of the year the minimum estimate of growth charted by the Association of automakers. In the accounts of the entity, the automotive sector, which in August reversed the growth trajectory and proceeded to show 1.2% drop in sales, will grow at a rate above 5% in the last four months of the year, compared with the same period in 2012.
To some analysts, however, that performance became unworkable on such factors as the accommodation of consumption, the increase in interest rates and the fall in consumer confidence. In months like October and December-that, in 2012, were marked by race of consumers at dealerships, given the possibility of the withdrawal of rebates in the tax on industrialized products (IPI), the industry will also be faced with a strong basis for comparison, making it harder to register good growth rates.
"The big impact actually occurs due to the great end of year 2012. We cannot achieve the 2012 in 2013, which will motivate the reduction of this year's results, "says Milad Kalume Neto, consulting analyst Jato Dynamics. He predicts that the market, thanks to the performance of commercial vehicles, will close at the same level as the 2013 almost a year earlier, marking a slight increase 0.3%.