Monday, September 30, 2013

Brazil will follow as the fourth in the world car market until 2020, says KPMG

Study conducted by KPMG Consulting indicates that Brazil, still showing some fluctuations over the next two years, will hold the fourth place among the largest automotive markets in the world by 2020.
According to the survey, the consumption of cars in the country, along with those of China, global leader, and of India, will have one of the biggest jumps to the end of the Decade, leaving 3.7 million vehicles, volume foreseen in 2013, to 5.8 million units-that is, an increase of 57% over the next seven years.
Estimates indicate that, even in high, the Brazilian market will fall for fifth place between 2014 and 2015 because of the rise of India. However, recover the fourth place in 2016, as a result of declining demand in Japan.
Charles During, a partner at consultancy in Brazil, remember that the country, given its great potential for expansion in consumption, has attracted investments from automakers, which includes projects of new factories. Example of this are the locally produced ads made by brands like BMW, North of Santa Catarina, and Audi, in Paraná.
The KPMG survey was done from interviews with executives of auto companies and the ranking takes into account sales of passenger cars and light utility vehicles, classified as light trucks in North America.
The research points to an offset "unprecedented" demand to emerging markets, with China expanding its leadership in the global automotive market. The Asian giant, according to the estimates, to reach sales of nearly 35 million cars by 2020, 65 percent of the 21 million units planned for this year.
On the other hand, more mature markets in North America and Europe will show only a slow recovery in relation to the volumes that these regions were at the beginning of the last decade, says KPMG. Still, the American, European and Japanese automakers, with its operations throughout the world, will continue responding, until 2020, by three out of four vehicles sold globally.
In a scenario marked by the rise of emerging countries, with India moving up from fifth to third place, Japan-today, third largest global automotive market-loses to space 2020 with sales of 4.3 million cars, about 600 thousand units below the current level. KPMG forecasts put the Asian country, which until 2005 only to the United States in sales of cars, in fifth place at the end of this decade, being overtaken by Brazil and India.
The United States will follow as the second major automotive market, but given the lower rate of growth, will be even farther from China. According to the survey, the American market will emerge over the next seven years of 15.3 million to 17.4 million vehicles, which corresponds to a high of almost 14% in seven years.
The European markets will continue outside the Centre of global growth, but Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy will remain on the list of the largest automotive markets in the world-although, in the last four of the top 10 positions.
Positive projections made in the KPMG study for emerging are based mainly on the potential for growth indicated by the use of indexes in countries like Brazil, India and China, still well below compared to developed markets. While in the United States there is one car for each inhabitant with condition to drive, in Brazil only one in five people have any vehicle.
Valor Econômico - 30/09/2013
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