After nine consecutive years of growth in sales, vehicle manufacturers already fear the first pullback in business based on poor performance registered in August. Until Thursday, so missing a working day to be counted in the month, accumulated sales since January showed growth of just 0.75% as compared to the same period in 2012, with 2.449 million units.
Since April and may, when the accumulated growth was close to 9%, the percentages are falling by 4.8% in June, 2.6% in July and with chances to stay between 1% and 2% negative this month, even with the addition of licenses of yesterday.
"This scenario of no sales growth and escalating prices is quite troubling," says the Executive of one of the major automakers.
He cites the high-foreign exchange that makes the prices of raw materials and components imported, the mandatory installation of airbags and antilock brakes on all cars from January, the end of the reduction in the tax on industrialized products (IPI) in January and also price adjustment requests on the part of suppliers, such as steel, that begin to plead high of nearly 8%.
"It is a scenario that did not appear in planning at the beginning of the year", says the Executive, to justify the optimistic forecasts in the industry that bet on new sales record this year, with numbers close to 3.9 million vehicles.
The National Association of Automotive vehicle manufacturers (Anfavea) predicted, since the beginning of the year, an increase of 3.5% to 4.5% in sales compared to 3.8 million units recorded in 2012. Next week, when disclosing the official balance of the month, the entity will review the bet down.
The industry hoped to sell 335 million vehicles this month, but until Thursday, the licenses amounted to 307.9 million cars, light commercials, trucks and buses, a high of 1.26% as compared to the same period in July, but 12% lower than the numbers from the same range of August 2012.
Stocks. The reflection of the slowdown is rising inventories. According to the Economic Survey of the manufacturing industry made from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), the item of material transport, which has the greatest weight cars and auto parts, shows that 26.8% consulted industries reported higher-than-normal inventories. In July, this percentage was 16.6%.
"The level of stocks in the sector of transport equipment is high mainly influenced by car segment, but the evolution between July and August was given by trucks and buses," says responsible for research at FGV, Aloisio Campelo.
A trucking industry executive reports that there is a delay in the approval of credit for financing by banks, which have hampered sales. "In addition, the poor performance of the economy generates insecurity and fleet owners prefer to wait".
The deadline for release of financing, which was five days, on average, is between 20 and 30 days, says the Executive. Until Thursday, sales of trucks presented fall of 9% as compared to the same period in July with 12,458 units, but high of 30% compared to August 2012. The automobiles and light commercial were 1.68 percent higher compared with July and 13.3% below those numbers a year ago, adding 292.6 thousand units.
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