To compete with the low cost of shale gas, who in three years has cost 20% of the price of natural gas in Brazil, is making the Country lose or defer billions of dollars in investments.
Industries that have up to 35% of its gas costs, such as ceramic and glass manufacturers, chemical and petrochemical, lost competitiveness, increased imports and migrate outward investments. Even traditional sectors such as toys, feel the effects.
"An important slice of the industry is with the oven turned off. We are losing competitiveness. The risk is to be replaced by national production imported, "says the Superintendent of the National Association of manufacturers, ceramic coatings (Anfacer), Antonio Carlos Kieling.
Kieling says that imports in the sector burst 9,000% in seven years, to $ 220 million a year, in a growing movement, since 25% of production costs come from gas. The assessment of loss of competitiveness is the same in various sectors, but reaches more weight the chemical and petrochemical industry. Companies like Braskem, Unigel and Dow Chemical are among those that crippled investment decisions of billions of dollars.
AGC glass company decided to just over three years to invest in a factory of R $ 800 million. Will be opened in Guaratinguetá (SP) this year for the production of flat glass, automotive glass and mirrors. "Since then, the price of gas has doubled, totally changed the scenario and profitability," said the CEO of AGC Brazil glasses, Davide Cappellino.
The decision to double the capacity, with over $ 800 million, was suspended indefinitely. Multinational units in the United States, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where the price of gas is 20% of the charged in Brazil, won preference in the allocation of resources. "For sure, the price of gas has made the decision to invest in Brazil much more difficult."
Review
The multinational also Cebrace planned to up to $ 1 billion in Brazil to export glass platform for Latin America. The company stopped new investment decisions in Brazil and returned her eyes to countries like Argentina and Colombia. The same happened with the Guardian, reviewing investments. Today, 35% of flat glass imports, up 10% from 2007.
"There is no new investment, and the future depends on decisions now. Want to see how the industry will be there for 2018 ", says Lucien Belmonte, Superintendent of the Abividro sector association, which estimates roughly a loss of up to $ 3 billion in the Decade by the reduction of competitiveness brought about by the price of gas.
Revolution
The turnaround in the market happened after an energy revolution in the United States, with the spread, over the past five years, the technique of ground fracturing in shale formations.
In this short period, the United States exchanged the position of big gas importer by exporting potential, an unthinkable scenario in 2008. The oversupply was the American gas price drop $ 9 that year, to $ 1.82 per million BTU (British thermal unit, the reference to the gas market) in April 2012.
Today, the American gas price is around $ 2.5 to $ 3 per million BTUs. In Brazil the product is about five times more expensive-it costs between $ 12 and $ 16. In Europe, is around $ 8 to $ 10. "Everyone who competes in the international market and it has production in Brazil is complaining about us," says a government source.
The effect is more intense for industries that use gas as raw material, the case of fertilizer manufacturers, or to move the machines. It is also the case of products that depend on high temperatures to be produced, such as ceramics.
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