Feed production should recover next year

National feed industry should only recover its production level reached in 2011 next year, after two years smarting with the skyrocketing commodity prices, which affected the demand for the production of meat. The expectation for 2014 is that production up 3% and reach 64.89 million tonnes, after a year of stable production, said Ariovaldo Zani, Executive Vice President of the National Union of the Animal feed industry (Sindirações), during event in Sao Paulo.
This year, the production must be in 63 million tons, the same volume produced last year, which should move us $ 40 billion. Although there has been a reduction in the price of corn, there was lack of demand, since in 2012 the poultry and swine industries have reduced the replacement Squad, which was reflected in a lower amount of piglets and chicks this year.
Next year, Zani sees a growth of demand, since the poultry and swine industries, which represent 80% of the demand for food rations in the country, are also estimating production advancement. In the case of poultry, the expectation is for growth of 3% of the volume exported and 4% in the production, while pig farming believes in an advance of 9% in the activity. "The weighted average of each sector, the advancement of our must be at most 3%", attests Zani.
External demand for red meat, which should increase next year, is one of the main stakes in the sector. This year, the demand of beef cattle on feed fell 4.2 percent because of the appreciation of the calf and the slim boi, what did the producer fatten pasture ox prefer to feed in confinement.
The production of pigs and poultry must also consume more feed, after reducing the demand on 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. Until September, the poultry consumed 22.1 million ton of feed, while pig farming accounted for 10.89 million tons. The industry sold from January to September, 46.5 million tons.
Production of feed for fish production was a point outside of the curve in this year and grew 12.2%, consuming until September 550 thousand tons. Second Zani, the segment promises to continue with an increase in demand above 10%.
Poultry for egg production and cows for milk production were also good consumer markets to feed this year and promise to at least maintain the same level of consumption next year.
In the case of egg production, Zani says that overproduction this year is already reflected in lower prices for the producer, which can lead to the reverse effect next year. The production of eggs consumed 5 percent more feed until September this year, with 4.18 million tons. The same effect can occur in milk production, which this year has consumed 3.88 million tons of feed until the third quarter, up 2.5% compared to the previous year.
Despite the forecast of growth, the sector must only retrieve the level produced in 2011. The following year, when the United States were hit by a drought that has cut its grain production, the sector in the country was caught by surprise with the high in the price of soybean meal and maize.
The Executive Vice President of Sindirações says that the industry is seeing next year a tendency of further reductions in the price of corn, but a support scenario soybean meal prices, with high bias. "China is still importing a lot and this keeping the heated demand," he said.
Nutritional supplements industry of animal nutritional supplementation produced 2 million tons this year. The volume remained stable and does not recover the losses in the sector since last year production was 20% less than in 2011. According to the Executive Vice President of the entity, "there is resistance from the producer to the technology, which views the supplementation as a cost rather than as an investment."
The Sindirações aims to create an action next year to encourage the thread which Zani, has the potential to offer 6 million tons to the internal market, three times the currently consumed.
Unequal charging the Vice-President of Sindirações stated that the Elimination of only a few links in the chain of production of protein made so far have damaged the feed production segment, which was not desonerado. In October, the Government desonerou soy and corn producers of PIS-Cofins, as already occurs in the production of poultry and swine since 2010. As the feed sector continued taxed, accumulated a credit that cannot be compensated, what turns cost. "Or the industry absorbs this cost and reduces the margin, what makes you lose competitiveness, or transfers in price", attested. Second Zani, the effect may be the rising cost of food for the consumer, contrary to the effect that the Government intended to fulfil isolated segments of protein production.