Friday, November 29, 2013

Car sales are slumping in November

News about the gradual withdrawal of rebates in the tax on industrialized products (IPI) from January has not yet caused the race to stores awaited by automakers and automotive market followed in declining trajectory this month. There was little improvement in the daily average of plates issued, getting closer to 14 thousand cars, just above the modest performance of October, 13.6 thousand units per working day-the average lowest in seven months. However, the shortest commercially month weighed on the result of November.
Analysts project falling plates issued around 10% to 11% compared to October and from 5% to 6% in comparison with November 2012. Until Wednesday, sales of light vehicles-excluding, therefore, trucks and buses-amounted to approximately 247 thousand units. But, taking into account the traditional acceleration of licensing in the last days of the month, that number is expected to climb, today, close to 280 thousand cars.
This time, the calendar played against. Three days of the sale at less than October, not to mention the holiday the day of black consciousness, which, although not national, interrupted on Wednesday of last week the operation of dealers in some of the biggest vehicle consumption centers in the country, such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
The market is heading, then, to wrap up November with fall around 1.6% to 1.7% in volume accumulated since January, which, according to analysts, making it unlikely the record sought by the sector this year.
To match the historical brand from 2012, when 3.63 million units were emplacadas, the market will have to get close to 400 thousand cars in December, almost repeating last August, the best month in the history of the industry, when more than 405 million automobiles and light commercial were licensed in the country. To grow 1%, as was designing the Fenabrave, vehicle resales entity, will require more sales of 436 thousand cars in the final month of the year, a volume even more unlikely.
The selectivity of banks in credit and release the lower propensity for consumption by a consumer less confident, and also more in debt, are among the factors cited by experts and industry executives in an attempt to explain the slowdown in the market since June. In addition to these reasons, the strong anticipation of purchases last year, which decreased the consumption potential in 2013.
With the arrival of the thirteenth salary resources in the economy, plus the possibility of recovery of part of the IPC from January, favoring the anticipation of purchases at the end of this year, there is reason to believe that December will be much better than November-not least because next month will take one business day to more than sale. "There is still some chance to at least tie with the result of 2012," says Julian Semple, consultant of Carcon Automotive. He recalls that, from now on, the brands will increasingly exploit the motto of "last days of IPI reduced" in advertising campaigns.
Nevertheless, Raphael Gallant, an analyst at Oikonomia, says that sales are down by credit restrictions and the escalation of interest-continued with the increase in Selic on Wednesday-draws a scenario even more "pessimist" for 2014. "The big question is credit. Without it, the market is not going to spin as it should, "said the expert, who designs indentation of 2% of the car plates issued in 2013.
In the fight between the marks this month the dispute for the fifth place is fierce between Hyundai and Renault. Until Wednesday, the Korean automaker, which makes success with HB20, surpassed the French in less than 80 cars, according to data compiled by Oikonomia. Market leader, Fiat is with 21% of sales, followed by Volkswagen (18.6%), General Motors (18.2%) and Ford (9.2%).
Valor Econômico - 29/11/2013
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