terça-feira, 30 de junho, 2020

Service confidence rises for 2nd month in a row

The Getulio Vargas Foundation's Service Confidence Index (ICS) rose 11.2 points in June, the second straight high, reaching 71.7 points. Despite accumulating 20.6 points in two months, the index recovered only 48% of the losses suffered in the March-April two-month period.
"Despite the significant june high, caution is needed because the comparison base is very low. Another point to be considered is the dynamics of this recovery, even more influenced by the improvement in expectations in the coming months. The worst moment seems to be falling behind, but the high uncertainty leaves the recovery scenario still unpecid," said Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV IBRE.
The Current Situation Index (ISA-S) rose 7.0 points to 64.0 points, still closing the semester with a loss of 28.9 points for the year. The Expectations Index (IE-S) grew 15.1 points to 79.8 points, and even accumulating 32.5 growth points in May and June, this was not enough to return to the pre-pandemic level.
The Service Sector's Installed Capacity Utilization Level (NUCI) decreased 0.8 percentage points to 77.2%, reaching a new historic serial low that started in April 2013. However, the decrease in this month was lower than in April (-3.5 p.p.) and in May (-1.5 p.p.).
"The recovery of monthly data shows that the third quarter may be less negative than this last quarter," fgv said.
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