No state in Brazil shows signs of reduced Covid-19 transmission

An analysis by researchers from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and released last Thursday pointed out that, even though the week has already passed with the maximum number of cases and deaths from the new coronavirus, no Brazilian state showed signs of a reduction in covid-19 transmission. According to scientists, this scenario configures a kind of plateau, which would correspond to a high level of transmission, and may extend indefinitely.
When alerting about the permanence of a high number of cases and deaths, even after the past week of maximum number of cases, Fiocruz also makes another warning:
"The decrease in severe case care and, consequently, the increased availability of ICU beds is one of the criteria that should be considered to adopt relaxation measures, but not the only one. The behavior of case and death curves, the pace and tendency of contagion, as well as the expansion of testing capacity to identify cases and isolate and track contacts should be considered as the foundation for the resumption of economic activities."
The analysis of the Team of MonitoraCovid-19, a fiocruz tool that seeks to show a real picture of the pandemic in the country, was based on the concentration of Covid-19 cases in the first 24 epidemiological weeks of each Brazilian state. In this sample, trends were identified and compared between capitals and municipalities on the propagation and incidence of Sars-Cov-2.
The researchers observed that the states of Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Paraíba, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia and Sergipe presented week 24 as the highest concentration of cases to date, indicating that, in these places, the epidemic is still in the process of rise, notifying a high number of patients infected by the new coronavirus.
The study reiterates the risks of large Brazilian metropolises in adopting policies of economic reopening and flexibilization of social isolation in this context.
Another problem highlighted by the researchers is the expansion of the pandemic in the municipalities of the interior of each state, which sounds the alarm due to the deficiency of physical and human health resources.
When analyzing the data from the Amazon, the researchers observed that the highest concentration of deaths occurred in epidemiological week 19. On the other hand, the state showed an advance in the escalation of cases at week 22. In this sense, the study estimated that this fact may be associated with the process of internalization of the pandemic, resulting in the ancestry of the death curve from the disease in the coming weeks.
In the statement, epidemiologist Francisco Xavier says that "what happens in the metropolitan region is repeated in the interior with two or three weeks of delay. That is why it is important to maintain isolation measures, even after the 'peak' in the capitals has passed."