Greater confidence and not enough Christmas will have lower growth to 2017

Although the improvement in the economy and in the political scene settings have elevated the confidence of retailers and consumers, still won't be the year 2018 of resumption of trade. The projection is that the advance sales of Christmas this is lower than the checked last year, much due to the anticipation of shopping on Black Friday and the dollar's impact on the products. "The economy is idling, and the shot of the dollar-which is close to the R $4, and in 2017 was around R $3 – is pushing the price of imported products that make up the final basket, like cod, wine and Electronics" evaluates the President of Associação Comercial de São Paul (ACSP) and the Federation of trade associations in the State of São Paulo (Facesp), Alencar Burti. In his review, another fact that may weigh on the Christmas business was the anticipation of purchases of more expensive items-like electronics-while editing the Black Friday this year. "But other items, especially toys, clothing and articles of personal use should have better performance," says. According to estimation of the ACSP, Christmas-related sales should grow between 2% and 3% in the city of São Paulo, much smaller variation seen in 2017, when sales rose 4.5%. "We must not forget that the basis of comparison in 2017 was the negative result of 4.8%," economics professor and an expert in retail from the University of São Paulo (USP) Christiano Pelloti. When evaluated the average increase for the rest of the country, the Boa Vista sales indicator estimates 3.5% advance in comparison with the same period last year. In 2017, compared to 2016, the increase recorded was 4.2%. According to the entity, the expectation is that there will be a nominal increase of R $3.66 billion in retail revenue. In the assessment of economists who signed the report of Boa Vista, high in the injection of resources into the economy is directly linked to improving credit conditions. "On defaults low, banks have been showing more and more willing to increase the supply of loans. For consumers, lower interest rates and improved confidence in recent months come raising the demand for credit, "said the analysis. As a counterpoint, they highlight that the high rate of unemployment still leaves the consumer in wait on decision making. Economists consider that the growth projection less than the registered on Black Friday, when sales rose 4.7%, does not suggest a weakening of the movement of trade. "Christmas is a date already consolidated in the retail, while Black Friday has been gaining relevance year after year," explains. Managing Director of the capixaba network EletroMais, Gerson Crosses told DCI strategy change this Christmas. "In 2017 we leave higher value-added items for Christmas [like TV, fridge and notebook] and use on Black Friday the medium cost [as tablet, fan, coffee]. This year we reverse and was a success, "said he. With the most aggressive discounts in November, the retailer managed to use on Black Friday the stock remaining in the first half, which opened space for items of less value and less dependent on the dollar. "It was a wise decision, because now we have stock to increase the volume of purchases, even though the average ticket is less than Black Friday," he says. The Christiano Pelloti consultant evaluates as positive the strategy of crosses. "For as close as is, Christmas and Black Friday are not eligible. With the greatest anticipation of consumer spending, is a natural readjustment of the stocks for each of the dates, "he says. According to the Boa Vista, 83% of consumers plan to shop at Christmas, IE, 119.3 million of people, which must move only in retail, the R $57.6 billion, which represents 32.3% of retail revenues from December and 3.7% retail revenue all year round. FILED