APAS predicts 2 percent growth in sales of supermarkets in this end of year

According to studies conducted by the São Paulo Association of Supermarkets, sales for this Christmas should have a real growth of 1.5% to 2% compared to last year. "Although shy, the increase is important in a year that had a lot of turbulence for the industry and creates positive expectations for 2019," explained Economist of APAS, Thiago Berka. The increase in sales this year is based on the slow recovery of formal employment that, though not ideal, have sum 603,368 NET slots until September this year against 98,619 from the same period last year. In General, unemployment to fall compared to the quarter between December, January and February 2017 2018 was 12.6%. Is currently at 11.9% (quarter of July, August and September) and with a tendency to fall with the arrival of temporary contracts. In addition to unemployment, another factor that keeps the optimism of the predictions is the variation in the dollar exchange rate, which should have an effect of higher prices on some items sold with the table correction made by the industry in the past few months whereas Exchange persistence at levels above R $3.70 (coming up 4.20 at times). "This effect can inhibit the volume of sales of some products, but helps in raising the average ticket and you can offset part of the losses of last year with the strong deflation in 2017, from 2.30% drop in prices," commented Berka. Another point that weighs in the pocket of the consumer and must impact on sales at the end of the year are the constant increases in fuel and energy. With that, the budget for extra spending tends to get even tighter. Price deflation of food left behind after harvest record obtained by agribusiness in 2017. This year, there is a more difficult scenario of prices caused mainly by the dollar and a crop, although very good, less than last year. The dollar caused increases in the whole chain from inputs of chemicals to the agriculture like wheat, and also made it more attractive to export than drain the production on the domestic market.