2020 GDP drop goes from 4.11% to 5.12%, focus projects

With the advance of the new coronavirus pandemic and the prospect of global downturn, the expectation of evolution of the Brazilian economy in 2020 fell again from -4.11% to -5.12%, according to the Focus Market Report, released on Monday by the Central Bank. Four weeks ago, the estimate was a drop of 2.96%. For 2021, the financial market maintained its forecast of a 3.20% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Four weeks ago, it was at 3.10%. Last Wednesday (12), the economic team revised the projection for the performance of the economy in 2020 from high of 0.02% to fall of 4.7%. In the Focus now released, the projection for industrial production in 2020 went from -3.00% to -3.68%. A month ago, it was at -2.25%. In 2021, the estimate of industrial production growth fell from 2.75% to 2.50%, compared to 2.70% four weeks earlier. The Focus survey also showed that the projection for the indicator that measures the ratio between net public sector debt and GDP for 2020 went from 64.15% to 64.20%. A month ago, i was at 60.90%. For 2021, the expectation was maintained at 65.20%, compared to 62.25% a month ago. Financial market economists worsen the estimate for the ratio of the primary deficit to GDP this year, which went from 7.52% to 7.80%. In the case of 2021, it went from 2.00% to 2.01%. A month ago, the percentages were at 5.00% and 1.50%, respectively. The ratio between nominal deficit and GDP in 2020 remained at 12%, according to the projections of the Focus Report. For 2021, it went from 5.70% to 6.00%. Four weeks ago, these ratios were at 10.00% and 5.20%, in this order. The primary result reflects the balance between government revenues and expenses, prior to the payment of interest on public debt. The nominal result reflects the balance already after the interest expenses. In the Focus survey, financial market economists changed their projection for the trade balance in 2020 from a trade surplus of $42.50 billion to $43.35 billion. A month ago, the forecast was $36.10 billion. For 2021, the estimated surplus went from $42.00 to $42.80 billion. A month ago, it was $35.60 billion. In the case of the current account, the forecast contained in focus for 2020 was a deficit of US$ 35.90 billion to US$ 34.10 billion, compared to US$ 40.80 billion a month earlier. For 2021, the projection of a loss went from US$ 44.00 billion to US$ 40.00 billion. A month ago, the projected hole was $45.20 billion. For analysts consulted weekly by BC, the entry of Direct Investment in the Country (IDP) will still be sufficient to cover the deficit result in these years. The median forecast for IDP in 2020 went from $70.75 billion to $65.00 billion. A month ago, it was $71.00 billion. For 2021, the expectation went from $79.00 billion to $76.00 billion, up from $80.00 billion a month earlier.