Coronavirus pandemic already impacts sales in Brazil

São Paulo — The Brazilian retail trade has already felt the thud in sales because of the measures followed by the population to prevent the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which include the lower circulation of people in public environments, such as shopping malls, by Example. Between Saturday and Sunday, consultations for spot and forward sales in stores, excluding supermarkets, fell by double digits compared to the same period last year and also compared to the previous weekend. A survey conducted by the Gastão Vidigal Institute of Economics of the Commercial Association of São Paulo (ACSP), based on the national sample provided by Boa Vista Serviços, points to a 16.7% decrease in consultations for spot and term business in relation to the same end of week of last year. Compared to the previous weekend, the drop was 16.3%. "It's a strong retraction. Going forward, the effects on retail will depend on the measures that will be taken," says ACSP chief economist Marcel Solimeo. He points out that before the weekend and the adoption of emergency prevention measures, retail sales this month grew 5.3% in the city of São Paulo alone compared to March last year. Considering the same number of days, performance was stable on this comparison basis. "Today, the environment is very uncertain, so it is not possible to reevaluate the projections made for retail performance this year," says Solimeo. The initial expectation was that retail trade would close this year with an advance of between 2% and 3% over 2019. Solimeo believes, however, that after the peak of the epidemic, this loss of sales is reversed and can even be compensated, because consumers should return to purchases that have been postponed due to the public health crisis. Service companies, such as bars and restaurants, for example, should be punished more than shops, because lost demand will not be compensated further. One point of concern, according to the economist, are stores that are heavily indebted and with working capital difficulties. "In this case, the drop in demand could be fatal."