Hydroelectric plant loses space in Brazil with expansion of wind power plants and solar generation

After decades of dominance, the hydroelectric dams go to lose the protagonism in the electrical matrix of Brazil, where the accelerated expansion of the wind power plants and solar photovoltaic generation should lead to important changes in the operation of the electrical system along the Coming years. If before the energy supply was ensured by water reservoirs with capacity to withstand up to years of consumption, now a growing part of the offer is associated with the sun and wind, which vary heavily during the day, Reuters told the director-General of the National electrical System Operator (ONS), Luiz Eduardo Barata. Amid this new reality, the organ that manages the firing of generation plants and the use of transmission lines to ensure the electric supply of the country has sought tools to deal with the uncertainty associated with the production of these new renewable sources. The ONS developed an application that uses wind forecast data provided by specialized institutions to design the generation of wind mills, and a similar system is being created to allow forecasts also on the production of the parks Solar, which begin to gain space in the country. "We have noticed an increase in volatility. It is a huge change in relation to the past times, when the matrix was basically hydrothermal, "said Barata, which predicts that the solar projection system is operational in two years. "We, with this, already know more or less what measures have to be taken in the system, in order to compensate (the variation of wind and solar generation)," he added. Water plants have already represented more than 80% of Brazil's capacity in the years 80 and 90. But difficulties in environmental licensing that helped to reduce the pace of hydroelectric construction still caused the new ventures of the source to be built mainly under the model "the waterline", without reservoirs, which reduced the Called "regularization capacity" of the system. Only between 2005 and 2017, the capacity of water reservoirs to meet demand even in critical rainfall scenario fell from 27 months to 16.4 months, according to the calculation of the center of Studies lights Brazil. "That is the most important topic, in my opinion... It is a gift we have built all these reservoirs in the past, otherwise the entrance of the wind would be almost impossible, "said Professor Adilson de Oliveira, of the Energy Economics Group of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (GEE-UFRJ). In this sense, it can also be said that Brazil is privileged, since most countries that today try to mitigate the flashing of new renewable sources can only use thermoelectric power to fossil fuels, which in addition to more pollutants are less Efficient than water generation for the task. "Today, the hydroelectric plant is the most effective technology worldwide to make this ' backup ', and Brazil is world champion in hydroelectric power plants," said consulting President PSR, Luiz Barroso. Space for gas Despite the support offered by the hydroelectric park to renewables, other solutions must be necessary to ensure the maintenance of the system's reliability in the medium and long term, especially in times of peak demand, even by the effect of Climate change and other water uses on hydro generation. "In the future, this flexibility will diminish... The hydroelectric plant leaves the role of being a flagship, the input, to be a service provider that allows the effective integration of renewable and other technologies, such as the thermal generation itself, "said Barroso, from the PSR. He said that the country can take advantage of the pre-salt gas to have this complementation with less pollutant fuel, seen as "transition", in addition to using technologies such as batteries, and betting on the expansion of the transmission system, to bring energy from a region The other one. "Brazil has a good problem, which is to have a very large set of options. Over the next few years or decades, the country will have to make its choices. It is a search that everyone is doing today in the world's energy markets, no country has a response to how to do it, it is a work in progress. " As these transformations in the matrix are realized, with more renewable wind and solar and gas thermal, the new role of hydroelectric plants will be consolidated, which changes until the behavior of the reservoirs. Currently, the lakes of the plants usually "keep water" during the rainy season, from November to April, to then empty slowly along the so-called "dry season", but this should no longer be necessary due to the large wind generation in the Northeast and the Presence of the gas, said Barata, of the ONS. "In about 15 years, we will no longer have a regime as it is today. The reservoirs will operate ' flat ', because I'm going to have the gas thermal base and I will have solar and wind (as complementary), "Barata said. This greater stability of the system would reflect on issues such as tariff flags, which generate extra costs for the consumer when the energy supply is low. The wind turbines today add up to 15 gigawatts (GW) in operation in Brazil, while the solar plants have 2 GW, against 100 GW in hydroelectric dams. The government's decennial plan predicts that up to 2027 wind Mills can gain 10 additional GW and the Solar 5 GW, while larger water mills should grow little more than 1 GW.