Trade confidence rises in October, says FGV

The index that measures trade confidence rose 1.2 points in October, from 97.2 to 98.4 points, according to the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). According to Rodolpho Tobler, coordinator of the Fgv IBRE Trade Survey, the improvement was influenced by the positive evolution of current situation indicators, possibly driven by the release of FGTS resources, and the accommodation of expectations. "After recording a fall in September, trade confidence returns to a positive result. By the end of the year, the expectation is to maintain this positive scenario of gradual recovery, with new rounds of resource releases and with recent improvements in the labor market", he says. Confidence rose in 7 of the 13 segments. The improvement in the index was influenced by the favorable result of the Current Situation Index, which rose 3.0 points, from 92.1 to 95.1 points. The Expectations Index fell 0.6 points, from 102.5 to 101.9 points. Despite the drop, this is the fourth consecutive month in which expectations remain above the level considered neutral. In recent months, results show a trend of recovery in trade confidence, according to the series in quarterly moving averages. In the last three months, the Current Situation Index has risen 6.4 points, recovering some of the losses suffered between February and July when it had lost 7.5 points. The recent high was more influenced by the semi-durable and non-durable segments, which were optimistic about the release of FGTS resources (except furniture and appliances that are of the durable group).