IDV predicts 1% high in nondurable sale

IAV-IDV (Antecedent Index of sales of Retail Development Institute) of July closed with fall 7.2% real, already discounted inflation, compared with the same period last year. Although the index design continuity of negative results over the next three months, the decrease will be on a lower level, signaling the change of scenery. Future estimates are 4.8% drop in August, 0.5% in September and 2.0% in October.
The segment of nondurable goods, which accounts for the most part by the sales of super and hypermarkets, drugstores and Perfumery, foodservice, presented fall of 7.1% in sales in July and signals new fall in August, 7.2%, in September 1% recovery and decrease of 2.6% again in October. Remember that the power sector within the home misses inflation pressure, with an average increase of 16% in July prices (accumulated 12 months).
Already the semi-durable goods sector, which includes clothing, footwear, sporting goods, bookshops and presented real 5.1% fall in July, compared to the previous year. The expectation for the next few months are positive results: 1.4% in August, 2.5 percent in September and 1.3 percent in October. The durable goods sector again had the worst result in July, with actual drop 8.9%. The recovery of consumer confidence and the resumption of credit remain key challenges for the thread. The projection of the Associates for the next few months is to fall from 3.4% in August, 3.7% in September and 3.3% in October.
IAV-IDV can anticipate between 30 to 40 days the trend of Monthly trade survey results, the IBGE.