Food should reduce pressure on inflation

Sao Paulo-the prediction of more favorable behavior in wholesale prices, coupled with the recovery of the real to the dollar, should cause the food inflation will cool down from August.

With that, the Institute of applied economic research (Ipea) believes that the current villain of the feed, the national consumer price index (IPCA), should slow down and contribute to the full content walk to levels closer to the roof of the goal of 6.5%.

An analysis of the Institute released last week indicates that, in a three-month horizon, approximately 37% of the variation of the IPCA is explained by food wholesale shocks, while the Exchange accounts for 7.6%. In prior periods, the chain has been responsible for 40% of the variation of the indicator.

"We''re not getting a deflation, it''s not a price drop, but let''s see the food growing at lower rates than we saw at the beginning of the year," says the DCI the technique of planning and research of the Ipea, Mustaque relative, in the event of maintenance of all the factors that influence on agricultural production.

Responsible for burdening the cost of inputs in the fields, the exchange rate has had its greatest impact absorbed by the market. Outside, the fertilizer, for example, followed in the fall trajectory and the appreciation of the real collaborated to improve the farmer''s exchange ratio at the time of purchase of the products.
According to the Broad producer price index (IPA), since January 2010, the prices of pesticides, feed and fertilizers showed 73% increments, 107% and 69%, respectively.

The dollar also made the international market more attractive, for meat, for example.

The break in the grain harvest, affected by drought and lack of rains, too, in the evaluation of the expert, was priced. "You''ve got a reduction in food chain this way" comments. In this regard, winter temperatures are favorable for pasture and crops such as fresh produce, which can be reflected in improved performance of milk to the final consumer.

It is worth noting that the advancement of second and third harvests crops of beans, for example, favors reducing the prices of wholesale values. According to the national supply company (Conab), the work in crops feijoeiras follow until mid-September.

In June, the index Ceagesp, reference prices of fresh foods on the market, recorded a fall of 2.87%, the third consecutive low even in the face of excessive rains and frosts in the South and Southeast regions.
"The reduction in consumption also affects the fruit sector at this time of year. With good quality and prices in the sector, fell 7.51% ", informed the Company of warehouses and general stores of São Paulo (Ceagesp) in a statement.
In contrast, the six-month period, the indicator accumulates high of 8.75%, as compared to the same period in 2015, and, in the last 12 months, the price reached 23.13% elevation.