Consumption in Brazil back to the levels of 2010

With families in debt and unemployment''s Ghost hanging around the economy, consumption-which has been the engine of growth in the country-must reach the end of this year at the same level in 2010. A setback of six years, if discounted inflation. During this period, the Brazilian consumer market shrunk R$ 1.6 billion, approaching value, in dollars, the GDP of Argentina.
The expectation for this year is that the total spending of Brazilians with products and services reaches R$ 3.9 trillion, according to IPC Marketing projections. "The fall in 2015 and that is expected for this year is not covered by the growth that occurred between 2011 and 2014," says Marcos Pazzini, in charge of the study and Director of the consultancy.
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The consumer, in practice, have you noticed that. The shopping cart is no longer the same, the plan to change car or buy a property was postponed, vacations abroad returned to be a long-term goal. "One of the differences of this crisis is that, now, the Brazilian has a much greater sense of loss," says Renato Meirelles, the instituto Popular Date.
For four consecutive years, from 2011 to 2014, the growth rate of household consumption exceeded the GDP performance. Last year, for the first time, consumption fell 4 percent and exceeded the GDP shrinkage of 3.8%.
For 16 of 22 product categories analyzed, the consumption is still lower than the level of 2010. Among them, are spending on clothing, recreation and culture, school fees, food at home and travel expenses.
What happened in the automotive industry is emblematic to understand this process of rise and fall of consumption, says economist Jose Roberto Mendonca de Barros, a partner at MB associates.
"The Government did not understand that the demand began to fall and continued stimulating production capacity," he says. Today, manufacturers are able to produce 5 million units per year, but it''s only 2 million. In the sector, the estimate is that if you take a decade to return to the record levels of sales.
How long the consumer market as a whole will recover is a prediction that economists still can''t do. "The families are very indebted. First, you have to pay your bills to then return to consume "says Zeina Latif, Chief Economist of XP Investimentos. "It will be a slow recovery."
The way, say economists, can be shorter than you think if the team of the President Michel Temer get, as saying, take back market confidence. "This is a factor that is not possible to measure, but can be an accelerator," says Adriano Pitoli, Trend consulting firm.
This, he says, is a way to climb the abyss of elevator and recover part of the consumer market with some agility. The floors, however, the only way to climb the stairs and the stairs do not facilitate. "We need to stabilize the economy, make the fiscal adjustment, reduce interest rates, control inflation, there''s no other way out.