Pharmaceutical and beverage industries already reflect worsening of industrial activity

SAO PAULO-the apparent improvement in industry performance between July and August no signals change in the downward trend of the activity, say economists. That's because sectors that came well, as a pharmacist and drinks, are already beginning to show low.
Industrial production advanced 0.7% in August compared with July, maintaining the same growth rate registered a month earlier. However, in August last year the activity has fallen 5.4% and the year low of 3.1%, accumulates, according to the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE).
The manufacture of pharmaceutical products was the main highlight negative, with drop of 7.4% in August before July. Nevertheless, compared with August of last year, the segment registers 2.1 percent advance and accumulated 5.6% in the year.
The Economist and professor at PUC-SP, Antônio Corrêa de Lacerda, assigns the monthly decline the loss of purchasing power of the population, affected by the advance of inflation.
The production of beverages, which also came with good performance in the year, surprised with indentation of 6.1% in August. Compared to the same month of last year, however, the production dropped 6.6 percent.
"As the basis for comparison for this calculation came from a high level, a negative variation does not necessarily mean a bad result", ponders the IBGE's Manager, Andrew Macedo, noting that the low monthly is a consequence of the above-average performance to meet the demand generated by the World Cup in July.
Consumer goods
While semi-durable and non-durable goods recorded fall of 0.8% in August compared with July, the durable goods fell 10.3% over the same period, recoil well typed. In comparison with August downturn of 3.1% and 17.9%, respectively. "The stimulus to consumption has had a lower efficacy [in the industry] that in the past and there's an exhaustion factor. But the scenario is the result of a set of factors "says Macedo.
Already a professor at PUC-SP justifies the sharp drop in the durable consumer goods sector by merging the performance in the automotive sector, the drop in exports to Argentina and the local market saturation. "The impact has intensified in recent months, but some recovery is possible," said Lacerda.
According to the IBGE, the capital goods category had no variance between July and August, since the intermediate goods advanced 1.1% over the period. About August of last year, the categories retreated 3.3% 13.4% and, in the same order.
Perspective
In a report, the strategist of Mizuho Bank, Luciano Rostagno, projects a continuity of trajectory of falling industrial production. The Bank predicts 2.5% retracement in the General indicator.
According to the Economist of Consulting Trends, Rafael Bacciotti, despite the improvement, the increase in the level of stocks still worries and confidence of the entrepreneur remains low, "he said in an interview with DCI.
The Chief Economist at Banco Fator, José Francisco de Lima Gonçalves, also doesn't see in high sensitive perspective monthly improvement. "An argument that corroborates this point is the continuous indentation of confidence in the sector, which is still observed in September," says Gaye, in a report.
For economists, the current electoral environment reinforces a picture of uncertainty, while the recent devaluation of the Brazilian Real may indicate a path more beneficial to the domestic industry.