Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Even with a weak economy, sales of "Christmas meats" must grow

Although the Brazilian economy is skating, the initial forecasts for sales performance of Christmas goods by refrigerators in this end of year indicate growth, a scenario that favors companies like JBS, BRF and Aurora foods, whose portfolios have specific products for this period. Beyond the expectation of higher sales, the industry is already being benefited by the drop in production costs, reflecting the lowest price of the grain.
Based on the projections of the Aurora, which is not publicly traded in the stock market, sales in this segment should grow in comparison to last year. According to the President of Aurora, Mario Lanznaster, sales of Christmas items of pork should grow 4% to 10% compared to what it was marketed at the end of 2013. The forecast for the billing is that grow 6% to 10%. The sales volume of Christmas birds must advance 4% to 10% over the past year. For the recipe, the forecast is for it to grow 6% to 12%.
The numbers are optimistic and, if confirmed, could mean an end of year favorable for companies in the domestic market. The BRF has in its portfolio products like peru and chester, as well as items of pork, and JBS, peru and special chicken Fiesta, which were of the harvest and were incorporated into the portfolio of the JBS Foods, your industrial company.
Luiz Adalberto Stábile Benicio, President of Santa Catarina Association of Poultry (Acav), estimates that sales of Christmas birds at the end of year should grow 5% in the country. "The second half is always better than the first" for the sector, says Benicio. He adds that the national production of poultry (all types) is estimated at 12.5 million tonnes this year, 2% to 3% greater than 2013. And most of that volume (52%) is sold in the second half of the year.
The leader claims that not every production for end-of-year sales was favored by the fall in production costs vista recently due to the reduction in prices of grains, such as corn and soybeans. That's because the birds for this purpose are heavier and began to be produced in may, gradually, as it is not possible to leave the entire production for the period closest to the parties. "[The companies] have produced with grain with higher prices, therefore, had increased production cost," he explains.
The patinated in the economy do not strip the President of Acav optimism regarding the performance of sales at the end of the year. "The economy is slow, but as it comes to food, there must be growth," he says.
The President of the Union of poultry products industries of the State of Paraná (Sindiavipar), Domingos Martins, shares the expectation. "The Special birds [chickens of greater weight, for example) will be the most accessible product in the basket of Christmas," he says, which estimates a 5% to 6% offer largest in the country. The Paraná is the largest national producer of poultry. In the case of turkeys and chester, the expectation is to offer stable, according to Malik. "It's a good time for the industry. The international market is favorable, the domestic firm and production costs are lower, "comments.
According to the value found, JBS Foods must make a small increment in the supply of products such as peru and bird in this end-of-year Fiesta, after having reduced the production of these items last year because of adjustments made when it acquired Seara of Marfrig.
An industry source says that the end of the year is a period of large sales volumes and lower fixed costs, which favors the sector. He adds that "the last quarter tends to be the best of the year", yet Christmas sales should not be so relevant to the results of the period. Exports on the rise and fall of the production costs should have greater influence, he says.
On the evaluation of the Chief Executive of the Brazilian Association of Animal protein (ABPA), the former Minister of agriculture Francisco Turra, consumption of so-called Christmas birds should grow this year and prices will be higher. According to the general framework Turra, lived by the poultry industry in this second half Brazilian, with heated external market demand-particularly Russia-, must influence the prices of Christmas birds. "The trend is for a higher price," he said.
Peru, for example, is a product that has been Mexico's demand, which should influence domestic prices. Affected by an outbreak of avian influenza, the country made a request to import about 100 thousand tons of Turkey meat from Brazil, volume that represents about 50% of the entire volume that the country used to export annually.
According to the ABPA, there should be an important growth of Turkey meat production in Brazil-last year, were 380 thousand tons. Thus, with the Mexican demand, prices tend to appreciate. "We imagine that has not increased a lot," he said. At its peak, in 2012, of Turkey meat production reached 460 thousand tons. This year, as Turra, production should not exceed the 400 thousand tons.
Valor Economico
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